← Pichubros' Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Pichubros' Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Hunter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |