← The HP Wolves Den STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS - MRC Season
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at The HP Wolves Den STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS - MRC Season
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-1-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1254
Q3 1423
1630
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
