Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Wind Allies | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |