← trinity card capital store championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at trinity card capital store championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 67.5% | 58.1% | 62.1% | 1271 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 50.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 41.2% | 51.4% | 45.7% | 1265 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1217 | — |