← Mortal Ambitions - Store Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Mortal Ambitions - Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1174
· median 1174
· range 1161–1186
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1157
Q1 1171
Q3 1294
1490
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 30.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
