EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 松江貓 AMB店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 87.5% | 62.7% | 63.2% | 59.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Slimes | 3 | 37.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 51.4% | 49.1% | 1297 | — |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 50.0% | 48.6% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.9% | 44.0% | 48.2% | 1462 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.1% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1331 | — |