← YUGUCO GA TCG Store Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at YUGUCO GA TCG Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.4%
avg ELO +10.6 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1433
· median 1433
· range 1433–1433
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1163
Q3 1381
1498
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
