← Favonia HQ (IPOH) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Favonia HQ (IPOH) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-1-3
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1247
· range 1214–1280
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1203
Q3 1412
1469
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
