Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at LLE Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.8%
avg ELO +8.4 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1391
· median 1391
· range 1377–1405
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 37.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 62.7% | +7.3 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
