EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Counterspell Games SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 64.8% | 60.0% | 56.9% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Slimes | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.0% | 55.0% | 54.8% | 1293 | — |
| 3 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.5% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 37.7% | 40.0% | 37.7% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Overlord | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.5% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 1170 | ↓ low |