Water Penguin MillTier 2
at AMB Store Championships
decks
1
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-1-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -9.8 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1526
· median 1526
· range 1526–1526
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1244
Q3 1445
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Allies | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
