← Mortal Ambition Store Championship at Alternate Universes Blue Bell!
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Store Championship at Alternate Universes Blue Bell!
decks
1
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-0-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.3%
avg ELO +6.9 per match
expected value
59.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1656
· median 1656
· range 1656–1656
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1174
Q3 1343
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
