← Mortal Ambition Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |