← GG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at GG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1251
· range 1164–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1197
Q3 1345
1517
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 23.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
