← Curio Grand Archive AMB Store Championships
Water AlliesTier 1
at Curio Grand Archive AMB Store Championships
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-2-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.1%
avg ELO +6.8 per match
expected value
57.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1262–1507
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1020
Q1 1198
Q3 1385
1507
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Silvie | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
