Water Penguin MillTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Ztrgod 82 cards · placed #1
• Krugdormicus 80 cards · placed #2
• TLux 87 cards · placed #3

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Water Barrier.

↑ Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

↓ Played more by losers

Water Barrier

Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.

Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.