Water Tera MageTier 2
at amb store championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Exia | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conduit of Seasons | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kraal, Stonescale Tyrant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dong Zhou, False Liege | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planar Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |