Water AlliesTier 1
at Win-A-Box!
decks
2
(40.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-0-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1323
· range 1307–1339
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1189
Q1 1207
Q3 1436
1468
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 20.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
