Water AlliesTier 1
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(33.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397
· median 1397
· range 1362–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1136
Q1 1241
Q3 1387
1536
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 33.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 16.7% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.7% | +10.9 |
