← CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship

Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 2

at CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship

decks
3 (4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19 4-13-2
overall winrate
26.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2% avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
45.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145 · median 1184 · range 1031–1218 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005 Q1 1171 Q3 1339 1562
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 14.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.3% -9.1
Fire Aggro 12.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.7% +16.0
Fire Firebloom Burn 6.7% 0
Fire Suzaku 5.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.2
Water Genbu 5.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.1% -15.9
Wind Exia 5.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.3% -10.8
Wind Seiryuu 5.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.6% -12.9
Wind Allies 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.2% -18.9
Wind Astra Cleric 4.0% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.0% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Arcane 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.0% +16.0
Fire Byakko 2.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.1
Fire Crux Mage 2.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.1
Wind Razorgale 2.7% 0
Fire Dawn of Ashes 1.3% 0
Fire Exia 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.5
Fire Exia Jin 1.3% 0
Fire Neos 1.3% 0
Fire Seiryuu 1.3% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.7% -6.1
Slimes 1.3% 0
Water Allies 1.3% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.3% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.3% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 1.3% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.3% 0
Wind Byakko 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.3% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.3
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.3% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 1.3% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Scorching Imperilment -1.00 0 1 0
Vermilion Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Barter Herbs -1.00 0 1 0
Increasing Danger +1.00 1 0 0
Glowering Conflagration -1.00 0 1 0
Under Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Heated Vengeance +1.00 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven -1.00 0 1 0
Kindling Flare -1.00 0 1 0
Fractal of Sparks -1.00 0 1 0
Meltdown +1.00 1 0 0
Ravenous Pyre -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Restorative Flame -1.00 0 1 0
Ingredient Pouch +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Fury -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate +1.00 1 0 0
Everflame Staff -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Disenchant +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer +1.00 1 0 0
Absolving Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/21670/archetypes/Fire Cinderbloom Combo