← Heretics Haven - Abyssal Heaven Store Championship

Fire AggroTier 2

at Heretics Haven - Abyssal Heaven Store Championship

decks
2 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4 1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9% avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
43.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275 · median 1275 · range 1217–1332 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1118 Q3 1279 1617
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 25.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 12.5% 0
Fire Suzaku 12.5% 0
Wind Allies 12.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 44.7% -5.0
Wind Lorraine 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.1
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Volda, Smolder's Spite +1.00 1 0 0
Mercenary's Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Mark the Target -1.00 0 1 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary +1.00 1 0 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Bowman +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Ignited Stab -1.00 0 1 0
Immolation Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Corhazi Courier -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Resplendent Kite Shield +1.00 1 0 0
Poisoned Dagger -1.00 0 1 0
Zander, Prepared Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Blitz Mage +1.00 1 0 0
Planted Explosive -1.00 0 1 0
Varuckan Soulknife -1.00 0 1 0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity +1.00 1 0 0
Ignite Fate +1.00 1 0 0
Alliance Gearshield +1.00 1 0 0
Blast Shield +1.00 1 0 0
Cinder Geyser -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper +1.00 1 0 0
Defender's Maul +1.00 1 0 0
Ornamental Greatsword +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Shield Fragmentation +1.00 1 0 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Surge Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Rending Flames -1.00 0 1 0
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21989/archetypes/Fire Aggro