EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 250504 Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 76.7% | 60.0% | 62.5% | 1386 | — |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 44.7% | 50.0% | 46.8% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 39.7% | 1419 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 1393 | — |