EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGG HVN Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 18.8% | 12 | 75.0% | 69.1% | 56.4% | 56.5% | 1302 | — |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.2% | 54.0% | 53.4% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 75.0% | 54.0% | 52.0% | 49.0% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.1% | 48.6% | 50.9% | 1314 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 41.9% | 48.0% | 47.3% | 1230 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 47.1% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Tristan | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.3% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 1278 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 45.7% | 46.5% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 34.9% | 45.0% | 41.7% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | 1245 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 31.8% | 41.7% | 40.6% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 39.3% | 41.4% | 46.0% | 1087 | ↓ low |