← Deck Out Store Championships
Water FractalTier 2
at Deck Out Store Championships
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1164–1532
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1164
Q1 1288
Q3 1399
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Water Genbu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
