EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 三民貓店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 68.0% | 58.3% | 59.4% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 57.4% | 58.0% | 54.5% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.9% | 56.0% | 56.7% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 53.3% | 51.7% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 22.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.2% | 51.7% | 53.1% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 3 | 33.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 25.2% | 40.0% | 39.7% | 1295 | ↑ top |