← Yume Hobby Station Abyssal Heaven Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at Yume Hobby Station Abyssal Heaven Store Championships
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1383
· range 1344–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1210
Q3 1359
1423
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
