← Abyssal Heaven Store Championship at Gamers Guild Tempe
Water FractalTier 1
at Abyssal Heaven Store Championship at Gamers Guild Tempe
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1214–1359
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1212
Q3 1366
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
