← HVN Store Championship at Rekreation Games
Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store Championship at Rekreation Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |