← MSG Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at MSG Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.7%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1317–1317
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1321
Q3 1382
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Allies | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
