Water FractalTier 2
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.3%
avg ELO -9.9 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1522
· median 1522
· range 1429–1616
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1161
Q3 1425
1678
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
