EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 17.6% | 17 | 70.6% | 60.9% | 57.4% | 54.9% | 1381 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 41.6% | 54.7% | 50.3% | 1526 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.7% | 54.3% | 50.3% | 1527 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 52.4% | 1303 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.4% | 51.6% | 53.8% | 1349 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.9% | 8 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 51.3% | 51.8% | 1578 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 17.6% | 18 | 50.0% | 44.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1392 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.6% | 48.9% | 51.9% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.1% | 45.7% | 52.9% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Kongming | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 26.9% | 41.2% | 40.7% | 1327 | — |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 25.8% | 40.0% | 35.5% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 22.2% | 49.8% | 39.0% | 47.3% | 1230 | ↓ low |