EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs - ALC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 25.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 70.2% | 58.3% | 60.9% | 1232 | — |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 52.6% | 56.3% | 55.2% | 1332 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 2 | 50.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 34.1% | 40.8% | 39.9% | 1317 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Lorraine | 2 | 50.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 34.1% | 40.8% | 39.9% | 1317 | ↑ top |