EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 店家錦標賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.8% | 55.0% | 56.1% | 1292 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 53.1% | 53.3% | 51.4% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.6% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 42.3% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1243 | — |