← Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge
Water FractalTier 2
at Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1315
· range 1237–1394
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1149
Q3 1393
1507
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Razorgale | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
