EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 90.0% | 62.4% | 58.0% | 54.5% | 1313 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 62.1% | 55.0% | 55.5% | 1243 | — |
| 3 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.3% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 48.7% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 46.7% | 49.9% | 1242 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.7% | 46.1% | 45.3% | 1293 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 37.6% | 45.8% | 42.4% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.7% | 43.3% | 44.3% | 1171 | ↓ low |