Fire ExiaTier 2
at Apex Store Champs
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1190
· median 1190
· range 1190–1190
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1277
Q3 1397
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
