← TTG Store Championship during the Mortal Ambition
Water FractalTier 2
at TTG Store Championship during the Mortal Ambition
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1327–1327
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1309
Q3 1367
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | -25.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Razorgale | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
