EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO Store Championship(HVN).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 75.0% | 64.6% | 57.5% | 58.1% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 43.3% | 55.0% | 48.6% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.3% | 51.0% | 51.1% | 1570 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 56.6% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 1545 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 25.0% | 45.9% | 45.0% | 47.5% | 1252 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 25.0% | 39.9% | 41.7% | 39.9% | 1553 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 40.7% | 38.9% | 42.9% | 1262 | — |