EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Crux Lorraine
53.3%
↑ top
1st
Fire Crux Lorraine
53.3%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Umbra Ranger
50.0%
↓ low
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.4% | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 48.7% | 53.3% | 49.4% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 54.1% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.9% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 1258 | — |