← Forest City Grand Archive Store Champs

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Forest City Grand Archive Store Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 49.1% 53.3% 48.1% 1298 ↑ top
2 Fire Arcane 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 62.1% 50.0% 52.8% 1153
3 Water Crux Mage 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 40.9% 50.0% 45.8% 1359 ↑ top
4 Water Genbu 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 49.1% 50.0% 52.2% 1139 ↓ low
5 Wind Allies 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 51.5% 50.0% 54.1% 1033 ↓ low
6 Wind Seiryuu 2 25.0% 6 50.0% 48.4% 50.0% 49.1% 1145
7 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 49.5% 47.5% 47.7% 1210