← MVP x Abyssal Heaven Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MVP x Abyssal Heaven Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Luxem Zander 1 12.5% 5 80.0% 56.7% 60.7% 54.6% 1532 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 12.5% 6 75.0% 74.4% 55.3% 58.8% 1466 ↑ top
3 Water Fractal 1 12.5% 4 50.0% 44.0% 50.6% 47.5% 1399 ↑ top
4 Fire Aggro 1 12.5% 4 37.5% 40.1% 45.8% 43.4% 1513 ↑ top
5 Wind Seiryuu 2 25.0% 4 25.0% 48.1% 44.3% 50.6% 1293
6 Water Allies 1 12.5% 2 0.0% 28.5% 40.0% 37.4% 1315 ↑ top
7 Water Genbu 1 12.5% 1 0.0% 43.4% 40.0% 43.4% 1131 ↓ low