← Luna Cards Presents: Grand Archive Abyssal Heaven Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Luna Cards Presents: Grand Archive Abyssal Heaven Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.5% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Tristan | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Unstable Fractal. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |