← Kayfabe - Store Championship - HVN
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Kayfabe - Store Championship - HVN
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.0%
avg ELO -15.7 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1099
· median 1099
· range 1099–1099
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1218
Q3 1436
1632
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
