← Game Kastle Austin Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Kastle Austin Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Arcane 1 12.5% 3 83.3% 66.7% 56.7% 57.8% 1213 ↓ low
2 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 3 83.3% 62.0% 56.7% 55.6% 1222
3 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 47.5% 53.3% 48.9% 1449 ↑ top
4 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 54.3% 53.3% 52.0% 1301
5 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 46.4% 46.7% 48.3% 1343 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 41.5% 46.7% 46.0% 1376 ↑ top
7 Wind Allies 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 43.7% 46.7% 47.1% 1151 ↓ low
8 Fire Suzaku 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 37.9% 40.0% 44.4% 1065 ↓ low