← Game Kastle Austin Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Kastle Austin Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 66.7% | 56.7% | 57.8% | 1213 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 62.0% | 56.7% | 55.6% | 1222 | — |
| 3 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 47.5% | 53.3% | 48.9% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 54.3% | 53.3% | 52.0% | 1301 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 1343 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.5% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.7% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1065 | ↓ low |