← Grand Archive - Constructed - Abyssal Heaven Regionals

Fire SeiryuuTier 1

at Grand Archive - Constructed - Abyssal Heaven Regionals

decks
2 (16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9% avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
51.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1209 · median 1209 · range 1186–1233 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124 Q1 1181 Q3 1226 1424
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Arcane 16.7% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 62.0% +8.9
Fire Exia 16.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.6% +0.6
Water Genbu 16.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.3% -9.2
Water Arcane 8.3% 0
Wind Beast 8.3% 0
Wind Exia 8.3% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 8.3% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Tithe Proclamation +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Searing Truth +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Light the Hunt -1.00 0 1 0
Coiled Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Rousing Rattle Drum -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Relic of Dancing Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Expel the Departed -1.00 0 1 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Life Essence Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Companion Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0
Da Qiao, Cinderbinder +1.00 1 0 0
Obscuring Threads -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Bestial Frenzy +1.00 1 0 0
Peacock of Prosperity -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Shatter the Brittle -1.00 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Serene Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Strengthen the Bonds -1.00 0 1 0
Journey's Beginning -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Craggy Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0
Suzaku's Command +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/23865/archetypes/Fire Seiryuu