← Grand Archive Store Championship (18th May 2025)
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship (18th May 2025)
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.2%
avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1106
· median 1106
· range 1106–1106
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1191
Q3 1383
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
