Water GenbuTier 1
at HVN BrandX StoreChamp
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1321
· range 1291–1351
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1040
Q1 1208
Q3 1399
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
