Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |