← Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 4 | 17.4% | 14 | 67.9% | 50.0% | 55.0% | 50.3% | 1440 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 61.1% | 65.5% | 52.8% | 56.3% | 1271 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 59.4% | 52.6% | 53.4% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 3 | 13.0% | 15 | 53.3% | 48.8% | 50.7% | 49.1% | 1314 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 4 | 17.4% | 16 | 53.1% | 49.1% | 49.5% | 48.9% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 49.3% | 48.3% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.6% | 49.2% | 51.1% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 57.7% | 47.3% | 52.9% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.4% | 46.0% | 47.2% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.1% | 41.8% | 42.6% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 27.8% | 45.3% | 40.7% | 47.3% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.5% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1146 | ↓ low |