← Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 4 17.4% 14 67.9% 50.0% 55.0% 50.3% 1440 ↑ top
2 Fire Suzaku 2 8.7% 9 61.1% 65.5% 52.8% 56.3% 1271
3 Wind Shadowstrike 2 8.7% 10 65.0% 59.4% 52.6% 53.4% 1356 ↑ top
4 Water Fractal 3 13.0% 15 53.3% 48.8% 50.7% 49.1% 1314
5 Wind Allies 4 17.4% 16 53.1% 49.1% 49.5% 48.9% 1240 ↓ low
6 Wind Luxem Zander 1 4.3% 5 50.0% 47.7% 49.3% 48.3% 1418 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Mage 1 4.3% 5 60.0% 56.6% 49.2% 51.1% 1402 ↑ top
8 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.3% 5 40.0% 57.7% 47.3% 52.9% 1170 ↓ low
9 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 4.3% 5 40.0% 45.4% 46.0% 47.2% 1141 ↓ low
10 Water Tera Kongming 1 4.3% 5 20.0% 36.1% 41.8% 42.6% 1202 ↓ low
11 Wind Astra Cleric 2 8.7% 9 27.8% 45.3% 40.7% 47.3% 1244 ↓ low
12 Fire Seiryuu 1 4.3% 4 0.0% 28.5% 40.0% 42.9% 1146 ↓ low