Water FractalTier 2
at Jeux HVN Store Championship
decks
13
(40.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
14-17-3
overall winrate
45.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1300
· range 1140–1513
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1140
Q1 1206
Q3 1377
1513
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 29.3% | -11.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 33.3% | -9.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.1% | -14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Viridian Protective Trinket, Nullifying Mirror. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fast Cure, Captivating Opulence.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Frostsworn Paladin
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Captivating Opulence
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Acquiescing Rejection
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Eventide Lure
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.46 | 7 | 1 | 5 | |
| Frostbind | -0.31 | 4 | 8 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 9 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.23 | 2 | 5 | 6 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 8 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.15 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |